A guess..

Proposed path....BUT....if SPX doesn't bounce and continues down and takes out 1300...chances are we could free fall.....in fact even if we do bounce first.....keep in mind that any time we fall below 1300....especially if we happen to be in an over sold position....odds are higher than normal for a free fall event.

INDU 60

Possible still..

RUT weekly

spx inverted

If things get bad..

Do banks need 5 years?

A possible triangle while the consumer tucks some saving away and pays off debt and financials repair their balance sheets after coming clean...

Three charts..

Watching this..

just something a little different that I'm always checking...at a do or die point right now.

spx monthly

Common knowledge probably...but just in case..

Taking it to the brink...

or I'm completely wrong....closing the week above 1400 could be bullish....but if we do....and then reverse strongly back below early next week....it's bearish. That would allow for a weekends worth of bullishness to fester. First things first....a strong reversal this morning with the jobs numbers could send things down in a hurry. Some cash indices may want a bit higher however.

Reverse psychology

Spx inverted..

Long range planning...

...a possibility

Sell in May and go diving?

NYAD cumulative breadth may be hinting at something here...diverging with the last high...doesn't mean price can't go a little higher......but something to be aware of.

The FED next week

....another high in the 1406/7 area....or we turn the crowd bullish again before the rug is pulled out near 1430. Just putting the possibles out there...

Odds and ends

A few charts at critical junctures....and a few others I'm watching re: internals

ISRG updated

Tran..showing divergence

A reminder..

The confluence of the 34 and 89 ema on the spx weekly is approx. 1397.50

Daily indu

Here's that same count on the daily.....much above 12900 ...giving it room for a head fake...then probably wrong..

INDU

Possible count...top could be in or needs another high....

For Canucks...

there would be a possible C=A at 14333

The Bounce...

..has gone or going a little further than anticipated....I remain bearish for the IT and expect new lows over the next several months...maybe sooner. The ONLY thing that will start changing my mind is a weekly close above OEX 644.

...and I still see IBM as bearish..

ISRG

Possible double top with massive divergence...last time I saw a chart similar to this was AAPL at the 203 high...before it got cut in half...

My read right now...

if we get a close above 1360...then I'm probably wrong...chart is a bit of a mess....

Similar to OEX intermediate term

A weekly close above 1400 would probably negate this...otherwise...apart from some sharp rally's...I think we hit the target box sometime before the end of the year....maybe summer...maybe Oct.

Why I'm bearish

Intermediate term anyways...and nothing goes straight down. There will be sharp rallies if this holds any predictive power at all. You have to have a really good study of the OEX weekly...a move back above both the 34 and 89 ema's then this scenario will probably be avoided. Note a ton of other possible resistance at 640. You have to do some comparisons of indicators that I've boxed then and now. Also keep in mind that OEX has so far topped in Oct. 07 right at the .75% retrace level. ...and coincided with the Fed starting a new rate reduction cycle...a very aggressive one I might add! Remember that the Fed started an aggressive rate reduction cycle in January of 01 with a surprise 50% cut. I've put a count on the daily...whether it's right or wrong....if the move from the 735 top to the 582 bottom was only the first leg....then an equal leg from the very recent high would take us to 488. ...Which is the late fall 2002 high and would be a 75% retrace back to the March 03 low from the 735 high. Beware of a 34/89ema cross..and remember BKX.

Downside surprise?

....and what if that ED on SPX is done....and we have double tops on spx,oex and indu? Targets noted are if the previous lows are taken out. Looking around the boards getting my very unprofessional sentiment take....most are seeing bullish patterns and are looking for a major ramp....

Scary possibility

TRAN weekly

So far ..so good..but yet another "but"

H&S or rectangle ....have to watch. Holding the bottom would mean either putting on a right shoulder or another trip to the top of a rectangle....breaking out the top would have a measured move of 10 points. Out the bottom and a good chance we have a signifcant top in.

updated..

if's going to make a new high it's from 1371/1374.50